What is the correct revised estimate of fiscal deficit for FY17?

Rs.5.34 trillion or 3.2% of GDP

by Manasi Swamy

Finance minister Arun Jaitely tabled the Union Budget for 2017-18 in the parliament today which also contained the revised estimates of government finances for 2016-17. The revised estimates peg gross fiscal deficit (GFD) for 2016-17 at Rs.5.34 trillion, which is Rs.3.7 billion higher than the budget estimate for the same year.

The overshooting of budgeted GFD target is marginal. What is perplexing is that while the budget document shows the government to have missed the fiscal deficit target in absolute terms, it shows it to have achieved the target comfortably as a proportion of GDP.

Moreover, the government has revised its estimate for GDP at current market prices upwards to Rs.15.08 trillion from Rs.15.07 trillion in the budget estimates. This is in complete contrast to the downward revisions in India’s GDP growth by many respectable agencies including IMF, World Bank and RBI.

Even if we assume that the upward revision in nominal GDP is entirely due to inflation and the GDP projection of the government is correct, the ratio of revised estimates of fiscal deficit and the GDP still do not match with the revised estimate of GFD-to-GDP ratio for 2016-17 provided in the budget document.

If we compute the GFD-to-GDP ratio from the gross fiscal deficit and GDP numbers provided in the Union Budget 2017-18 document, it works out to 3.44 per cent, much higher than the ratio of 3.2 per cent mentioned in the document.

References
1. http://indiabudget.gov.in/ub2017-18/bag/bag1.pdf
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.8 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
96.0 -0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.2 -0.3
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.5 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.50 1.22 1.34 2.91
Completed projects 0.87 1.24 1.11 1.35
Stalled projects 2.68 0.69 0.88 3.41
Revived projects 0.23 0.34 0.22 0.24
Implementation stalled projects 0.76 0.78 0.71 1.05
Updated on: 21 Jun 2018 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 10.7
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 13.0 17.3
 Net profit -19.8 -18.0 -14.3 -78.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.4
 Count of Cos. 4,512 4,498 4,488 4,231
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.3 12.4
 Expenses 10.5 8.1 12.3 13.0
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 13.1 1.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 6.8
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.9
 Current assets 78.6 8.4
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.7
 Borrowings 10.4 1.4
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 8.1
 Count of Cos. 3,480 3,467 3,471 3,281
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Jun 2018 8:21PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.8 15.1
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.8 21.9
 Net profit 0.0 -9.8 26.7 -75.8
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 1.5
 Assets 9.5 10.1 7.2 16.3
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 6.9 11.2
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 2.0
 Count of Cos. 25,972 24,188 21,604 134
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 0.9 5.6 12.1
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.9 11.6
 Net profit -8.2 19.5 21.8 12.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 11.7
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.3 6.3 23.3
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 5.6 6.5
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 6.0 15.0
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.3
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 11.5
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 -24
 Count of Cos. 21,193 20,267 18,054 92
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Jun 2018 12:40PM