Downside risks to FY18 growth projection increased : Economic Survey Vol-2

Low farm incomes, farm loan waivers and twin balance sheet problem pose challenges

by Manasi Swamy

Downside risks to the growth projection of 6.75-7.50 per cent for 2017-18 have increased since February 2017, the government stated in the volume-2 of Economic Survey 2016-17 released today. Stressed farm revenues consequent to the fall in non-cereal prices, farm loan waivers and the fiscal tightening they will entail, along with the falling profitability of the power and telecom sector are making the achievement of growth target difficult. To sustain the current growth trajectory, investments and exports need to pick up and the twin balance sheet problem needs to be resolved in order to facilitate credit growth. The survey also noted that the launch of GST, positive impacts of demonetisation, rationalisation of energy subsidies and actions to address the twin balance sheet challenge will augur well for the growth of the Indian economy.

References
1. http://indiabudget.gov.in/es2016-17/echapter_vol2.pdf
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
4.6 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
95.8 -0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
94.8 -0.3
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
97.3 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
New projects 2.33 3.82 2.07 1.04
Completed projects 1.01 1.94 1.16 1.00
Stalled projects 1.13 0.73 2.67 0.67
Revived projects 0.18 0.67 0.30 0.29
Implementation stalled projects 0.83 0.33 0.68 0.62
Updated on: 12 Dec 2017 9:20AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 16 Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17
All listed Companies
 Income 6.2 10.2 9.8 8.4
 Expenses 6.3 11.9 10.0 9.7
 Net profit 40.2 16.0 -19.6 -17.7
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 6.0 5.3 5.8
 Count of Cos. 4,509 4,444 4,318 3,364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.9 11.8 10.4 8.4
 Expenses 7.2 15.6 10.6 8.4
 Net profit 24.5 -2.3 -25.0 -5.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.2 5.2 6.6
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.5
 Current assets 2.6 2.4
 Current liabilities 8.8 10.4
 Borrowings 4.8 3.3
 Reserves & surplus 6.3 8.0
 Count of Cos. 3,484 3,440 3,352 2,533
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 12 Dec 2017 9:21AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.2 1.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.9 5.2 1.2 6.9
 Net profit -2.3 1.4 -13.1 20.6
 PAT margin (%) 3.2 3.2 2.9 6.4
 Assets 12.3 9.4 9.7 8.6
 Net worth 9.6 8.7 10.6 7.9
 RONW (%) 6.2 6.1 5.1 9.2
 Count of Cos. 24,045 23,818 20,791 4,756
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.3 0.1 6.7
 Expenses 9.3 4.5 -0.6 7.5
 Net profit -2.7 -5.8 11.6 14.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.1 2.6 6.3
 Net fixed assets 11.6 13.3 15.5 7.3
 Net worth 8.1 7.1 11.0 6.3
 RONW (%) 5.1 4.9 5.4 10.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 2.0 3.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 66 49
 Count of Cos. 19,288 19,270 17,281 3,624
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Dec 2017 11:59AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices