Need for revision in inflation forecasting model: Economic Survey

Actual inflation at least 100 bps below RBI's projection in last 14 quarters

by Manasi Swamy

The mid-year Economic Survey stresses on the need to revise India’s inflation forecasting model such that the structural changes can be captured while estimating the future trajectory. The international oil market and domestic agriculture have seen structural changes. Hence, using historical context to explain them is meaningless. To strengthen the argument, the survey cites that RBI’s inflation forecast has been at least 100 basis points higher than the actual inflation numbers in the last 14 quarters.

References
1. http://indiabudget.gov.in/es2016-17/echapter_vol2.pdf
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.9 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
92.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
91.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
93.7 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
New projects 4.06 2.14 1.23 1.12
Completed projects 1.96 0.86 1.05 0.93
Stalled projects 0.74 2.67 0.67 0.93
Revived projects 0.86 0.30 0.29 0.23
Implementation stalled projects 0.33 0.69 0.73 0.58
Updated on: 24 Feb 2018 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
All listed Companies
 Income 10.2 9.7 7.9 11.9
 Expenses 11.9 10.0 9.0 12.9
 Net profit 16.4 -19.8 -16.8 -12.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 5.3 5.7 5.0
 Count of Cos. 4,474 4,463 4,442 4,291
Non-financial Companies
 Income 11.8 10.3 7.7 12.7
 Expenses 15.6 10.6 7.5 11.7
 Net profit -2.2 -25.2 -4.2 13.2
 PAT margin (%) 6.1 5.2 6.4 6.6
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.2
 Current assets 2.7 78.8
 Current liabilities 8.9 11.0
 Borrowings 4.9 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 5.2
 Count of Cos. 3,457 3,447 3,421 3,335
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 24 Feb 2018 8:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.4 1.5 6.8
 Expenses 9.9 5.5 1.7 7.1
 Net profit -2.5 0.3 -12.9 22.1
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 3.1 2.8 5.3
 Assets 12.3 9.5 10.1 8.3
 Net worth 9.7 8.5 11.7 7.4
 RONW (%) 6.1 5.9 4.9 7.9
 Count of Cos. 24,633 24,657 22,529 10,919
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.6 0.6 6.7
 Expenses 9.4 4.8 0.0 7.6
 Net profit -3.1 -8.1 13.2 15.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.0 2.5 4.9
 Net fixed assets 11.7 13.3 17.4 7.2
 Net worth 8.3 6.9 12.4 5.4
 RONW (%) 5.0 4.7 5.1 8.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 65 52
 Count of Cos. 19,858 20,066 18,861 8,566
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Feb 2018 10:31AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices