Farm loan waivers to push up combined fiscal deficit by 40 bps: RBI paper

Inflation to see a permanent rise of 20 bps

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

Farm loan waivers will result in a 40 basis points increase in combined fiscal deficit in 2017-18, and push up inflation by 20 basis points on permanent basis (assuming all other things remain same), according to a study by the RBI staff. The paper estimates total farm waivers during 2017-18 to amount to Rs. 881 billion, equivalent to 0.5 per cent of GDP. This will take the outstanding amount under debt waivers offered by AP, Telangana, TN, UP, Maharashtra, Punjab and Karnataka since 2014 up to Rs.1.3 trillion.

References
1. http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/farm-debt-waivers-may-lead-to-20-bps-permanent-rise-in-inflation-rbi-study-117091101585_1.html
2. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/farm-loan-waiver-may-push-inflation-by-0-2-per-cent-rbi-paper/articleshow/60467813.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
4.8 +0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
97.2 -0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.5 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
98.2 -0.5
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
New projects 4.00 2.11 1.18 0.84
Completed projects 1.95 0.86 1.03 0.90
Stalled projects 0.74 2.67 0.67 0.80
Revived projects 0.86 0.30 0.29 0.20
Implementation stalled projects 0.33 0.69 0.73 0.58
Updated on: 22 Jan 2018 9:20AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
All listed Companies
 Income 10.2 9.7 7.9 10.8
 Expenses 11.9 10.0 9.2 10.5
 Net profit 16.1 -19.8 -20.0 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 5.3 5.4 14.9
 Count of Cos. 4,460 4,387 4,310 153
Non-financial Companies
 Income 11.8 10.3 7.7 9.9
 Expenses 15.6 10.6 7.8 9.8
 Net profit -2.3 -25.2 -7.9 13.9
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.2 6.1 14.6
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.0
 Current assets 2.7 78.0
 Current liabilities 8.8 10.6
 Borrowings 4.9 10.1
 Reserves & surplus 6.3 4.8
 Count of Cos. 3,448 3,406 3,346 111
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 22 Jan 2018 9:20AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.3 1.4 6.6
 Expenses 9.9 5.4 1.5 7.1
 Net profit -2.5 1.6 -12.6 18.7
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 3.2 2.9 5.7
 Assets 12.3 9.4 9.8 8.3
 Net worth 9.6 8.7 10.8 7.2
 RONW (%) 6.1 6.1 5.1 8.3
 Count of Cos. 24,439 24,353 22,049 8,816
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.5 0.5 6.4
 Expenses 9.4 4.6 -0.3 7.6
 Net profit -3.1 -5.5 12.5 11.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.1 2.6 5.3
 Net fixed assets 11.7 13.3 15.6 7.3
 Net worth 8.2 7.1 11.2 5.3
 RONW (%) 5.0 4.9 5.4 9.0
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 65 52
 Count of Cos. 19,688 19,805 18,467 6,761
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Jan 2018 12:27PM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices