Revenue impact of GST rate cuts likely to be higher than Rs.200 bln

Businesses to use tax credits to offset reduced tax liability

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

The recent lowering of GST rates on about 200 items is likely to have a revenue implication of more than Rs.200 billion in the short-term, as per an article in Financial Express. Tax experts believe that businesses will prefer to use their input tax credits from the 28 per cent tax rate to meet their reduced output tax liability at 18 per cent over the next three to four months rather than paying in cash. Consequently, the government may see a depletion in tax revenue for the next four months which needs to be evaluated. Furthermore, if the GST revenue collections does fall much more than the anticipated levels, the government may struggle to compensate states and meet its own budgetary target. The government is expecting an expansion of the tax base and improved compliance to offset reduction in revenues on account of rate cuts.

References
1. http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/gst-council-rate-cuts-revenue-impact-higher-than-estimate-say-experts/931822/
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
6.2 +0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
101.5 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
100.7 +0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
99.5 +0.9
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
New projects 1.25 1.51 3.43 2.32
Completed projects 1.26 1.16 1.57 0.91
Stalled projects 0.69 0.88 3.44 0.30
Revived projects 0.34 0.24 0.26 0.22
Implementation stalled projects 0.78 0.71 1.92 0.04
Updated on: 18 Aug 2018 12:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
All listed Companies
 Income 7.9 12.0 9.7 16.3
 Expenses 9.0 13.0 16.2 19.4
 Net profit -18.0 -14.3 -80.1 3.7
 PAT margin (%) 5.5 4.8 1.2 5.5
 Count of Cos. 4,508 4,503 4,360 4,023
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.2 13.3 11.1 18.5
 Expenses 8.2 12.4 11.7 20.3
 Net profit -6.0 13.2 1.8 33.5
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.2
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.8
 Current assets 2.9 7.2
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.4
 Borrowings 3.4 1.9
 Reserves & surplus 7.9 7.2
 Count of Cos. 3,464 3,471 3,372 3,172
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Aug 2018 12:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 6.0 9.9
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 6.0 13.3
 Net profit 0.1 -9.7 25.8 -37.5
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 4.2
 Assets 9.5 10.2 7.5 13.2
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 7.7 12.8
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.8 5.7
 Count of Cos. 26,178 24,474 22,051 749
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.9 1.0 5.8 8.5
 Expenses 5.1 0.4 6.1 8.0
 Net profit -9.4 19.9 20.7 6.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 9.3
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.9 6.7 27.6
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 6.6 9.7
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 5.9 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 6.2
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 8
 Count of Cos. 21,351 20,488 18,371 585
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 12 Aug 2018 11:30AM