Professional forecasters revise GVA growth projections downwards at 6.5% for FY18

CPI inflation to rise to 4.4% in fourth quarter of FY18

by Natasha Nadkar

As per the results of the RBI’s Professional Forecasters Survey released on 6 December 2017, Gross Value Added (GVA) at basic prices is expected to grow by 6.5 per cent in FY18, a 10 basis points downward revision from the previous round. In FY19, GVA is expected to increase by 7.4 per cent. The Current Account Deficit (CAD) is expected to be at 1.6 per cent of GDP for FY18. It will grow at 1.7 per cent of GDP in FY19. CPI Inflation is expected to be at 3.9 per cent in the third quarter of FY18, 20 basis points lower than previous round estimates. Thereafter, CPI inflation is expected to rise to 4.4 per cent by the March quarter of FY18.

References
1. https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/PublicationsView.aspx?id=18046
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.9 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
96.0 +0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.5 +0.3
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.0 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.50 1.23 1.34 2.78
Completed projects 0.87 1.24 1.11 1.35
Stalled projects 2.68 0.69 0.88 3.41
Revived projects 0.23 0.34 0.22 0.24
Implementation stalled projects 0.76 0.78 0.71 1.05
Updated on: 19 Jun 2018 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 10.7
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 13.0 17.3
 Net profit -19.8 -18.0 -14.3 -78.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.4
 Count of Cos. 4,512 4,498 4,486 4,225
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.3 12.4
 Expenses 10.5 8.1 12.3 13.0
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 13.1 1.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 6.8
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.9
 Current assets 78.6 8.4
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.7
 Borrowings 10.4 1.4
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 8.1
 Count of Cos. 3,480 3,467 3,469 3,275
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Jun 2018 8:21PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.6 5.5
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.6 6.2
 Net profit 0.0 -10.0 26.3 0.9
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 12.0
 Assets 9.5 10.1 7.2 18.5
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 6.8 5.4
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 13.6
 Count of Cos. 25,852 24,013 21,375 64
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 1.0 5.4 4.0
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.7 1.6
 Net profit -8.2 19.2 21.2 18.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 16.5
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.2 6.2 5.2
 Net worth 6.9 12.0 5.5 -2.4
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 6.1 21.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 34.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 43
 Count of Cos. 21,088 20,114 17,854 48
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Jun 2018 11:54AM