RBI expects inflation to range between 4.3-4.7% in Q3 and Q4 of FY18

Marginally higher than estimate in October statement

by Janaki Samant

In its Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement, RBI expects inflation to be in the range of 4.3-4.7 per cent in the December 2017 and March 2018 quarter. This is marginally higher than the inflation projection of 4.2-4.6 per cent made in the Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement announced in October. The expectation includes the impact of an increase in house rent allowance (HRA) by the Centre which is estimated to be up to 35 basis points.

The RBI has highlighted various factors that are likely to have an impact on inflation.

  • Inflation excluding food and fuel has started rising after easing in the June quarter. It is likely to rise further in the coming quarters.
  • The impact of the rise in HRA is expected to peak in December. Housing inflation can rise further in 2018 driven by increase in HRA by state governments.
  • International crude oil prices might continue to rise as OPEC has decided to maintain production cuts in 2018.
  • Prices of vegetables might record some seasonal moderation in the near term.
  • The GST Council shifted various retail goods and services to the lower tax bracket. This should reflect in lower retail prices in the near future.

References
1. https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PressRelease/PDFs/PR154282904D281FD54EF08343C906F501BEE5.PDF
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.9 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
96.0 +0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
96.5 +0.3
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.0 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.50 1.23 1.34 2.78
Completed projects 0.87 1.24 1.11 1.35
Stalled projects 2.68 0.69 0.88 3.41
Revived projects 0.23 0.34 0.22 0.24
Implementation stalled projects 0.76 0.78 0.71 1.05
Updated on: 19 Jun 2018 8:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 10.7
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 13.0 17.3
 Net profit -19.8 -18.0 -14.3 -78.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.4
 Count of Cos. 4,512 4,498 4,486 4,225
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.3 12.4
 Expenses 10.5 8.1 12.3 13.0
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 13.1 1.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 6.8
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.9
 Current assets 78.6 8.4
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.7
 Borrowings 10.4 1.4
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 8.1
 Count of Cos. 3,480 3,467 3,469 3,275
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Jun 2018 8:21PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.6 5.5
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.6 6.2
 Net profit 0.0 -10.0 26.3 0.9
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 12.0
 Assets 9.5 10.1 7.2 18.5
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 6.8 5.4
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 13.6
 Count of Cos. 25,852 24,013 21,375 64
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 1.0 5.4 4.0
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.7 1.6
 Net profit -8.2 19.2 21.2 18.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 16.5
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.2 6.2 5.2
 Net worth 6.9 12.0 5.5 -2.4
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 6.1 21.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 34.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 43
 Count of Cos. 21,088 20,114 17,854 48
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 Jun 2018 11:54AM