RBI's real GVA growth projection for 2017-18 at 6.7%

Retains the October policy forecast

by Janaki Samant

In the Fifth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Statement, RBI has retained its projection for real GVA growth during 2017-18 at 6.7 per cent that was made in the previous policy statement.

The factors that are likely to influence the growth trajectory in the near term as per RBI are listed below.

  • Recent increase in oil prices is likely to have a negative impact on margins of firms and GVA growth.
  • Shortfalls in kharif production and rabi sowing are expected to adversely affect the growth projections for agriculture.
  • Credit growth has started picking up in recent months. Recapitalisation is expected to improve credit offtake further.
  • RBI survey indicates that the services and infrastructure sectors are expecting an improvement in demand, financial conditions and the overall business situation in the March 2018 quarter.

References
1. https://rbidocs.rbi.org.in/rdocs/PressRelease/PDFs/PR154282904D281FD54EF08343C906F501BEE5.PDF
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.9 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
92.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
91.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
93.7 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
New projects 4.06 2.14 1.23 1.12
Completed projects 1.96 0.86 1.05 0.93
Stalled projects 0.74 2.67 0.67 0.93
Revived projects 0.86 0.30 0.29 0.23
Implementation stalled projects 0.33 0.69 0.73 0.58
Updated on: 25 Feb 2018 4:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
All listed Companies
 Income 10.2 9.7 7.9 11.9
 Expenses 11.9 10.0 9.0 12.9
 Net profit 16.4 -19.8 -16.8 -12.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 5.3 5.7 5.0
 Count of Cos. 4,474 4,463 4,442 4,292
Non-financial Companies
 Income 11.8 10.3 7.7 12.7
 Expenses 15.6 10.6 7.5 11.7
 Net profit -2.2 -25.2 -4.2 13.2
 PAT margin (%) 6.1 5.2 6.4 6.6
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.2
 Current assets 2.7 78.8
 Current liabilities 8.9 11.0
 Borrowings 4.9 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 5.2
 Count of Cos. 3,457 3,447 3,421 3,336
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 25 Feb 2018 4:21PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.4 1.5 6.8
 Expenses 9.9 5.5 1.7 7.1
 Net profit -2.5 0.3 -12.9 22.1
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 3.1 2.8 5.3
 Assets 12.3 9.5 10.1 8.3
 Net worth 9.7 8.5 11.7 7.4
 RONW (%) 6.1 5.9 4.9 7.9
 Count of Cos. 24,633 24,657 22,529 10,919
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.6 0.6 6.7
 Expenses 9.4 4.8 0.0 7.6
 Net profit -3.1 -8.1 13.2 15.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.0 2.5 4.9
 Net fixed assets 11.7 13.3 17.4 7.2
 Net worth 8.3 6.9 12.4 5.4
 RONW (%) 5.0 4.7 5.1 8.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 65 52
 Count of Cos. 19,858 20,066 18,861 8,566
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Feb 2018 10:31AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices