India's GDP growth to inch up to 7.2% in FY19: BofA-ML

Consumption demand to be key driver

by Arjit Singh Bhambra

India’s economic growth is likely to continue with shallow recovery in 2018-19, as per a report by Bank of America Merill Lynch (BofA-ML). The bank expects growth to inch up to 7.2 per cent in 2018-19 and further up to 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 from 6.5 per cent in 2017-18. Increase in consumption demand along with increased spending on social sectors in the pre-poll year will boost economic activities. The report also mentions that a possible La Nina and farm loan waivers could support rural demand. Lower lending rates and hike in income tax exemption limit will encourage urban demand. Meanwhile, no upturn is anticipated in the capex cycle till 2019-20 on account of excess capacity.

References
1. http://www.financialexpress.com/economy/gdp-growth-in-fy19-likely-to-see-marginal-pick-up-at-7-2-says-report/963547/
2. http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/gdp-growth-in-fy19-likely-to-see-marginal-pick-up-at-7-2-report-2455811.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.9 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
92.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
91.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
93.7 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
New projects 4.06 2.14 1.23 1.12
Completed projects 1.96 0.86 1.05 0.93
Stalled projects 0.74 2.67 0.67 0.93
Revived projects 0.86 0.30 0.29 0.23
Implementation stalled projects 0.33 0.69 0.73 0.58
Updated on: 25 Feb 2018 4:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 17 Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17
All listed Companies
 Income 10.2 9.7 7.9 11.9
 Expenses 11.9 10.0 9.0 12.9
 Net profit 16.4 -19.8 -16.8 -12.4
 PAT margin (%) 6.0 5.3 5.7 5.0
 Count of Cos. 4,474 4,463 4,442 4,292
Non-financial Companies
 Income 11.8 10.3 7.7 12.7
 Expenses 15.6 10.6 7.5 11.7
 Net profit -2.2 -25.2 -4.2 13.2
 PAT margin (%) 6.1 5.2 6.4 6.6
 Net fixed assets 6.9 9.2
 Current assets 2.7 78.8
 Current liabilities 8.9 11.0
 Borrowings 4.9 10.5
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 5.2
 Count of Cos. 3,457 3,447 3,421 3,336
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 25 Feb 2018 4:21PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
All Companies
 Income 10.0 5.4 1.5 6.8
 Expenses 9.9 5.5 1.7 7.1
 Net profit -2.5 0.3 -12.9 22.1
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 3.1 2.8 5.3
 Assets 12.3 9.5 10.1 8.3
 Net worth 9.7 8.5 11.7 7.4
 RONW (%) 6.1 5.9 4.9 7.9
 Count of Cos. 24,633 24,657 22,529 10,919
Non-financial Companies
 Income 9.7 4.6 0.6 6.7
 Expenses 9.4 4.8 0.0 7.6
 Net profit -3.1 -8.1 13.2 15.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 2.0 2.5 4.9
 Net fixed assets 11.7 13.3 17.4 7.2
 Net worth 8.3 6.9 12.4 5.4
 RONW (%) 5.0 4.7 5.1 8.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 69 67 65 52
 Count of Cos. 19,858 20,066 18,861 8,566
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 21 Feb 2018 10:31AM

Data added for HPI at Assessment prices and HPI at Market prices