RBI to cut rates by 25 bps in August 2018 if monsoon is normal: BofAML

Average inflation to be around 4.8% in FY19

by Nidhi Bhati

Inflation risks are ‘overdone’ and the RBI monetary policy committee (MPC) will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in August 2018 if the La Nina materialises, according to a report by Bank of America Merill Lynch (BofAML). The report further noted that while Budget 2018 has hiked minimum support prices (MSPs), the inflationary impact is likely to be muted as ruling wholesale prices are already higher than the revised MSP. The bank estimates 2018-19 average inflation at 4.8 per cent (adjusted for June quarter base effects), within the RBI’s 2-6 per cent inflation target.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/inflation-peaking-off-rbi-may-cut-rates-by-25-bps-in-august-bofaml/articleshow/62897612.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
6.2 +0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
100.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
99.7 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
98.2 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
New projects 1.25 1.51 3.42 2.32
Completed projects 1.25 1.16 1.56 0.91
Stalled projects 0.69 0.88 3.44 0.30
Revived projects 0.34 0.24 0.26 0.22
Implementation stalled projects 0.78 0.71 1.92 0.04
Updated on: 15 Aug 2018 9:20AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18 Jun 18
All listed Companies
 Income 7.9 12.0 9.7 16.4
 Expenses 9.0 13.0 16.2 19.7
 Net profit -18.0 -14.3 -80.3 3.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.5 4.8 1.2 5.7
 Count of Cos. 4,508 4,503 4,338 3,297
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.2 13.3 11.1 18.7
 Expenses 8.2 12.4 11.7 20.7
 Net profit -6.0 13.2 1.6 32.5
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 6.4 6.6 7.4
 Net fixed assets 9.2 11.8
 Current assets 2.9 7.2
 Current liabilities 11.0 10.4
 Borrowings 3.4 1.9
 Reserves & surplus 7.9 7.2
 Count of Cos. 3,464 3,471 3,357 2,595
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 15 Aug 2018 9:20AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 6.0 9.9
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 6.0 13.3
 Net profit 0.1 -9.7 25.8 -37.5
 PAT margin (%) 3.0 2.8 3.5 4.2
 Assets 9.5 10.2 7.5 13.2
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 7.7 12.8
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.8 5.7
 Count of Cos. 26,178 24,474 22,051 749
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.9 1.0 5.8 8.5
 Expenses 5.1 0.4 6.1 8.0
 Net profit -9.4 19.9 20.7 6.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 9.3
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.9 6.7 27.6
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 6.6 9.7
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 5.9 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.4
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 6.2
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 8
 Count of Cos. 21,351 20,488 18,371 585
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 12 Aug 2018 11:30AM