IMD forecasts normal monsoon in 2018

Rainfall likely to be 97% of LPA

by Natasha Nadkar

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted a normal monsoon at 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA), with a model error of plus or minus five per cent, in 2018. Forecast assessment suggests 42 per cent probability of a normal monsoon rainfall while the probability of a below normal rainfall is 30 per cent. There are 14 per cent chances of the rainfall being deficient. LPA is average seasonal rainfall over the country starting from 1951 and it is estimated to be 89 centimeters. Monsoon is considered normal if rain during the June to September season is 96-104 per cent of the LPA. Private forecasting agency Skymet has also predicted a normal rainfall in 2018 [see here].

References
1. http://www.imd.gov.in/pages/press_release_view.php?ff=20180416_pr_231
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
6.0 -0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
93.3 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
93.3 -0.3
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
93.2 +0.5
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.33 1.38 1.23 2.16
Completed projects 0.87 1.21 1.02 1.07
Stalled projects 2.67 0.69 0.93 3.34
Revived projects 0.23 0.34 0.23 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.73 0.73 0.58 1.05
Updated on: 27 Apr 2018 9:20AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 9.6
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 12.9 13.1
 Net profit -19.9 -18.1 -13.9 -12.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.9 11.2
 Count of Cos. 4,483 4,470 4,433 119
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.2 6.6
 Expenses 10.5 8.2 12.3 7.9
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 12.7 -1.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 12.6
 Net fixed assets 9.2 10.1
 Current assets 78.7 6.6
 Current liabilities 11.0 20.8
 Borrowings 10.4 4.3
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 0.2
 Count of Cos. 3,461 3,444 3,430 86
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 27 Apr 2018 9:20AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.5 1.5 5.1 1.6
 Expenses 5.6 1.7 5.1 0.7
 Net profit 0.0 -10.3 23.7 9.2
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 2.8 3.6 8.3
 Assets 9.5 10.0 6.9 3.3
 Net worth 8.5 11.4 6.0 2.8
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 5.9 12.7
 Count of Cos. 25,647 23,668 20,755 19
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.7 0.6 4.7 1.5
 Expenses 4.9 0.0 5.2 0.6
 Net profit -8.6 18.4 18.0 10.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.5 3.1 7.4
 Net fixed assets 13.3 17.3 5.4 4.4
 Net worth 6.9 12.0 4.4 2.9
 RONW (%) 4.6 5.1 6.0 11.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 11.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 38
 Count of Cos. 20,897 19,807 17,287 17
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Apr 2018 11:50AM

Time series available from 1990 onwards