HSBC expects inflation to average 5.1% in FY19

Sees two rate hikes of 25 bps each in 2018

by Nidhi Bhati

Inflation is expected to average 5.1 per cent in 2018-19 compared to underlying inflation of 3.6 per cent in 2017-18, according to HSBC Global Research report. The factors that will contribute to the increase in inflation include higher oil prices, a weaker rupee, higher minimum support prices (MSPs) and more currency in circulation. The report noted that global factors like rise in oil prices, fed rate hikes and likely fall in USD liquidity will impact India’s macro economy, while domestic factors like higher agriculture MSPs may raise inflation. Taking note of all these factors, HSBC is now forecasting two rate hikes of 25 basis points each at the August 2018 and October 2018 monetary policy committee (MPC) meetings, respectively. A further hike in 2019 will depend on the national election outcome, health of India’s banking sector, strength of world growth, US dollar, US rates and oil prices, the report added.

References
1. https://www.livemint.com/Politics/jsMHvo82KQVqYuna96louI/Inflation-set-to-rise-by-15-to-51-this-fiscal-report.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
5.1 +0.1
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
95.4 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
95.4 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
95.5 0.0
Quarterly CapeEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
New projects 2.40 1.35 1.30 2.42
Completed projects 0.87 1.22 1.06 1.27
Stalled projects 2.67 0.69 0.95 3.35
Revived projects 0.23 0.34 0.22 0.18
Implementation stalled projects 0.77 0.78 0.59 1.05
Updated on: 27 May 2018 4:20PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 17 Sep 17 Dec 17 Mar 18
All listed Companies
 Income 9.6 7.9 11.9 11.9
 Expenses 9.9 9.0 13.0 18.9
 Net profit -19.8 -18.1 -14.7 -83.2
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.5 4.8 1.1
 Count of Cos. 4,499 4,486 4,449 1,647
Non-financial Companies
 Income 10.2 8.2 13.2 13.6
 Expenses 10.5 8.1 12.4 14.0
 Net profit -25.1 -6.0 12.7 5.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 6.2 6.4 7.9
 Net fixed assets 9.2 14.5
 Current assets 78.6 10.4
 Current liabilities 11.0 11.0
 Borrowings 10.4 -4.4
 Reserves & surplus 5.2 10.6
 Count of Cos. 3,472 3,458 3,445 1,306
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 27 May 2018 4:20PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
All Companies
 Income 5.6 1.8 5.5 3.6
 Expenses 5.7 1.9 5.5 2.8
 Net profit 0.0 -10.0 25.8 9.8
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 2.8 3.6 10.0
 Assets 9.5 10.1 7.1 7.1
 Net worth 8.5 11.3 6.6 5.1
 RONW (%) 5.8 4.9 6.0 15.5
 Count of Cos. 25,791 23,882 21,156 37
Non-financial Companies
 Income 4.8 0.9 5.3 3.0
 Expenses 5.0 0.3 5.6 2.0
 Net profit -8.2 19.0 20.5 10.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 3.0 8.7
 Net fixed assets 13.4 17.3 6.1 2.7
 Net worth 7.0 12.0 5.3 3.6
 RONW (%) 4.7 5.2 6.1 17.0
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.2
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 1.9 2.1 16.2
 Net working capital cycle (days) 66 65 62 27
 Count of Cos. 21,034 19,996 17,659 28
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 May 2018 10:09PM

Time-series available from 2007-08 onwards