Barclays puts India's current account surplus at USD 20 bln in 2020-21

by Nidhi Bhati

India is likely to have a record current account surplus of about USD 19.6 billion or 70 basis points (bps) of GDP, according to Barclays. The impact on the current account balance will come from lower demand for both oil and non-oil imports. Barclays expects merchandise trade deficit to continue to narrow and forecasts a shortfall of just USD 103 billion or 3.7 per cent of GDP in 2020-21, relative to a fiscal deficit of 5.3 per cent of GDP in 2019-20. For April-June 2020, current account deficit (CAD) is projected to be around USD 3 billion while during July-September 2020, current account surplus is estimated at USD 8 billion. The foreign brokerage further noted that the bigger impact on the current account balance will come from lower demand for both oil and non-oil imports. However, some of these gains will be lost due to the pandemic-induced hits to service exports to the pandemic-ravaged United States and the Middle East, as well as well as remittance inflows, it added.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/current-account-may-turn-s urplus-in-fy21/articleshow/75881740.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
8.9 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
43.1 -0.4
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
45.2 -0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
39.8 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.12 5.15 3.44 0.57
Completed projects 0.85 1.65 1.70 0.17
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.77 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.53
Implementation stalled projects 0.90 0.15 9.28 0.07
Updated on: 12 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.6 -2.3 -1.7 -4.1
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9
 Net profit 17.5 -1.3 -11.1 -41.5
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.1 3.2
 Count of Cos. 4,486 4,445 4,407 2,704
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.3 -5.5 -8.2
 Expenses 1.6 -6.7 -6.4 -3.9
 Net profit -7.5 -13.5 -14.1 -43.5
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.7 4.4
 Net fixed assets 10.4 13.7
 Current assets 5.0 3.2
 Current liabilities 5.0 3.5
 Borrowings 8.4 15.0
 Reserves & surplus 6.0 4.3
 Count of Cos. 3,361 3,335 3,301 2,087
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 12 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.3 13.2 4.3
 Expenses 9.8 13.4 2.8
 Net profit -39.9 20.7 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 10.3
 Assets 10.9 9.2 11.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.5 6.5
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.4 11.7
 Count of Cos. 26,220 24,732 364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.5 13.6 0.1
 Expenses 8.6 13.8 -1.2
 Net profit -8.7 23.5 4.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 3.2 12.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 4.9 30.4
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 3.6
 RONW (%) 5.7 7.0 15.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 6.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 69 -13
 Count of Cos. 21,415 20,146 258
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 09 Jul 2020 7:12PM