Moody's expects India's economy to contract in 2020-21

by Nidhi Bhati

Moody’s Investors Service has projected India’s real GDP to contract during 2020-21. It had earlier forecasted of zero growth due to economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Moody’s believes that the economic damage as a result of India’s coronavirus lockdown will likely be extensive. The fiscal measures announced by the government are unlikely to offset lower consumption and sluggish business activity resulted from the extended lockdown. However, Moody’s expects a stronger rebound in 2021-22 compared to its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent on the basis of a favourable base effect.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indian-economy-to-contract-in-fy21-lockdown-compounds-economic-challenges-says-moodys/articleshow/75887109.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.7 -2.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
46.3 -0.4
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
48.7 -0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
42.5 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.25 5.55 3.91 0.68
Completed projects 0.85 1.66 1.73 0.24
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.76 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.59
Implementation stalled projects 0.91 0.13 9.78 0.08
Updated on: 27 Sep 2020 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
All listed Companies
 Income -2.3 -1.7 -4.9 -28.1
 Expenses -3.1 -2.2 -1.8 -28.4
 Net profit -1.3 -10.8 -47.5 -41.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.1 2.4 5.3
 Count of Cos. 4,452 4,431 4,247 4,117
Non-financial Companies
 Income -6.3 -5.5 -8.9 -38.4
 Expenses -6.7 -6.4 -4.9 -38.4
 Net profit -13.8 -13.8 -48.5 -60.2
 PAT margin (%) 5.7 5.7 3.4 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 12.9
 Current assets 4.9 3.0
 Current liabilities 5.0 4.8
 Borrowings 8.3 14.7
 Reserves & surplus 5.7 2.1
 Count of Cos. 3,328 3,307 3,201 3,102
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 27 Sep 2020 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.3 0.9
 Expenses 9.9 13.5 1.3
 Net profit -40.3 22.2 -14.4
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 5.1
 Assets 10.9 9.3 9.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.6 6.4
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.3 7.1
 Count of Cos. 27,645 26,682 3,100
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.7 13.8 -2.7
 Expenses 8.8 14.0 -1.9
 Net profit -9.0 23.4 -21.4
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.2 5.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 5.3 15.3
 Net worth 6.1 8.5 3.7
 RONW (%) 5.7 6.9 9.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 3.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 52
 Count of Cos. 22,442 21,605 2,329
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 27 Sep 2020 12:32PM