Moody's expects India's economy to contract in 2020-21

by Nidhi Bhati

Moody’s Investors Service has projected India’s real GDP growth to contract during 2020-21 compared with an earlier forecast of zero growth due to economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. Moody’s believes that the economic damage as a result of India’s coronavirus lockdown will likely be extensive and reflect the country’s inherent economic vulnerability and fiscal constraints. The global rating agency further added that the fiscal measures announced by the government were unlikely to offset lower consumption and sluggish business activity resulting from the extended lockdown. However, Moody’s expects a stronger rebound in 2021-22 compared to its earlier estimate of 6.6 per cent, on the basis of a favourable base effect.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indian-economy-to-contract-in-fy21-lockdown-compounds-economic-challenges-says-moodys/articleshow/75887109.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
24.0 -0.2
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
40.6 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
42.0 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
38.5 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
New projects 1.12 2.19 5.02 3.07
Completed projects 0.88 0.85 1.65 1.30
Stalled projects 0.13 0.41 0.60 0.59
Revived projects 0.29 0.54 0.83 0.42
Implementation stalled projects 0.98 0.85 0.15 5.75
Updated on: 28 May 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.7 -2.2 -1.7 0.3
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 1.7
 Net profit 17.4 -2.4 -10.2 -2.3
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.2 9.8
 Count of Cos. 4,466 4,425 4,375 290
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.4 -5.4 -3.8
 Expenses 1.7 -6.7 -6.3 -3.4
 Net profit -8.7 -14.5 -13.2 4.8
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.8 11.5
 Net fixed assets 10.4 23.4
 Current assets 4.9 10.2
 Current liabilities 4.9 10.0
 Borrowings 8.5 16.7
 Reserves & surplus 6.1 15.2
 Count of Cos. 3,347 3,323 3,279 231
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 May 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY17 FY18 FY19
All Companies
 Income 6.1 8.1 14.8
 Expenses 6.1 9.6 15.1
 Net profit 26.2 -40.0 21.8
 PAT margin (%) 3.3 2.0 3.2
 Assets 8.6 10.9 10.0
 Net worth 9.6 7.5 9.2
 RONW (%) 5.8 3.5 5.3
 Count of Cos. 28,088 25,721 16,984
Non-financial Companies
 Income 5.8 8.3 15.6
 Expenses 6.0 8.4 16.0
 Net profit 22.9 -8.8 20.4
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.8 4.1
 Net fixed assets 9.2 6.9 5.8
 Net worth 8.9 6.0 8.7
 RONW (%) 6.2 5.7 8.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.1 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.0 2.2 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 85 76 56
 Count of Cos. 22,931 20,946 13,206
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 May 2020 11:49AM