Covid 19 to accelerate second wave of consolidation in India Inc: BofA

by Nidhi Bhati

The Covid-19 pandemic will accelerate a second wave of consolidation in India, resulting in big firms across sectors gaining further market share from smaller and unorganised players, according to Bank of America (BofA) Securities. The first round of consolidation was triggered by demonetisation and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2016 and 2017, respectively. According to BofA analysis, higher compliance costs, plug of tax leakages and liquidity issues have reduced share of unorganised players since GST and demonetisation. It further observed that organised companies with cash rich or low leverage are much better placed to tide over the Covid-19 crisis, while those operating in the unorganised sector are at a disadvantageous position. The brokerage further stated that dislocation in the markets would further accelerate disintermediation of the wholesalers and new asset owners are likely to emerge in infrastructure and real estate as liquidity would be tight and lenders would remain cautious.

References
1. https://www.financialexpress.com/industry/big-companies-to-get-bigger-after-covid-bofa-securities/1971683/
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
9.1 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
42.7 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
44.9 +0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
39.4 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.12 5.15 3.39 0.57
Completed projects 0.85 1.65 1.70 0.17
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.77 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.53
Implementation stalled projects 0.90 0.15 9.30 0.07
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.6 -2.3 -1.7 -4.0
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9
 Net profit 17.5 -1.3 -11.1 -43.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.1 3.1
 Count of Cos. 4,486 4,445 4,407 2,650
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.3 -5.5 -8.1
 Expenses 1.6 -6.7 -6.4 -4.0
 Net profit -7.5 -13.5 -14.1 -46.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.7 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 13.8
 Current assets 5.0 2.8
 Current liabilities 5.0 3.8
 Borrowings 8.4 14.9
 Reserves & surplus 6.0 4.3
 Count of Cos. 3,361 3,335 3,301 2,044
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.3 13.2 4.3
 Expenses 9.8 13.4 2.8
 Net profit -39.9 20.7 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 10.3
 Assets 10.9 9.2 11.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.5 6.5
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.4 11.7
 Count of Cos. 26,220 24,732 364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.5 13.6 0.1
 Expenses 8.6 13.8 -1.2
 Net profit -8.7 23.5 4.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 3.2 12.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 4.9 30.4
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 3.6
 RONW (%) 5.7 7.0 15.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 6.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 69 -13
 Count of Cos. 21,415 20,146 258
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 09 Jul 2020 7:12PM