India's real GDP to decline by 5% in FY21: Duvvuri Subbarao

GDP growth may rebound in FY22

by Nidhi Bhati

India’s real GDP growth is likely to contract by five per cent during 2020-21, according to the former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Duvvuri Subbarao. However, Subbarao is optimistic that once the lockdown is lifted and the economy is given a green signal to restart, India’s growth may rebound to five per cent during 2021-22. Amid this grim situation, the former RBI governor said he sees two silver linings, relative stability of the external sector and bumper agricultural crop production, which would support the economy. He also lauded the government’s decision of additional borrowing during 2020-21.

References
1. https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/gdp-growth-may-rebound-to-5-in-fy22-former-rbi-governor/article31689240.ece
2. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/indian-economy-may-expand-by-around-5-in-fy22-ex-rbi-governor-subbarao-120052701380_1.html
3. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/indias-gdp-growth-may-rebound-to-5-pc-in-fy22-says-duvvuri-subbarao/articleshow/76040370.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
9.1 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
42.7 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
44.9 +0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
39.4 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.12 5.15 3.39 0.57
Completed projects 0.85 1.65 1.70 0.17
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.77 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.53
Implementation stalled projects 0.90 0.15 9.30 0.07
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.6 -2.3 -1.7 -4.0
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9
 Net profit 17.5 -1.3 -11.1 -43.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.1 3.1
 Count of Cos. 4,486 4,445 4,407 2,650
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.3 -5.5 -8.1
 Expenses 1.6 -6.7 -6.4 -4.0
 Net profit -7.5 -13.5 -14.1 -46.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.7 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 13.8
 Current assets 5.0 2.8
 Current liabilities 5.0 3.8
 Borrowings 8.4 14.9
 Reserves & surplus 6.0 4.3
 Count of Cos. 3,361 3,335 3,301 2,044
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.3 13.2 4.3
 Expenses 9.8 13.4 2.8
 Net profit -39.9 20.7 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 10.3
 Assets 10.9 9.2 11.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.5 6.5
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.4 11.7
 Count of Cos. 26,220 24,732 364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.5 13.6 0.1
 Expenses 8.6 13.8 -1.2
 Net profit -8.7 23.5 4.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 3.2 12.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 4.9 30.4
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 3.6
 RONW (%) 5.7 7.0 15.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 6.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 69 -13
 Count of Cos. 21,415 20,146 258
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 09 Jul 2020 7:12PM