JP Morgan forecasts strong rebound in Indian markets during H2FY21

by Nidhi Bhati

JP Morgan’s Chief Economist Bruce Kasman has projected a strong rebound in Indian markets during October 2020-March 2021. However, the rebound may not be strong enough to undo the damage caused due to the coronavirus pandemic, Kasman added. JP Morgan economist further expressed concern over deterioration in the country’s public finances, social disruption and the limits of public financing in the long slog back from the coronavirus crisis. He also cautioned that central banks cannot defend against the coming disinflationary wave and income and job losses are going to have a lasting effect on consumer behaviour.

References
1. https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/jp-morgan-chief-economist-forecasts-strong-rebound-in-indian-markets-11590547348252.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
9.1 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
42.7 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
44.9 +0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
39.4 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.12 5.15 3.39 0.57
Completed projects 0.85 1.65 1.70 0.17
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.77 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.53
Implementation stalled projects 0.90 0.15 9.30 0.07
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.6 -2.3 -1.7 -4.0
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9
 Net profit 17.5 -1.3 -11.1 -44.3
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.1 3.0
 Count of Cos. 4,486 4,445 4,407 2,657
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.3 -5.5 -8.2
 Expenses 1.6 -6.7 -6.4 -4.1
 Net profit -7.5 -13.5 -14.1 -46.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.7 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 13.8
 Current assets 5.0 2.8
 Current liabilities 5.0 3.8
 Borrowings 8.4 14.9
 Reserves & surplus 6.0 4.3
 Count of Cos. 3,361 3,335 3,301 2,050
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.3 13.2 4.3
 Expenses 9.8 13.4 2.8
 Net profit -39.9 20.7 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 10.3
 Assets 10.9 9.2 11.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.5 6.5
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.4 11.7
 Count of Cos. 26,220 24,732 364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.5 13.6 0.1
 Expenses 8.6 13.8 -1.2
 Net profit -8.7 23.5 4.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 3.2 12.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 4.9 30.4
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 3.6
 RONW (%) 5.7 7.0 15.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 6.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 69 -13
 Count of Cos. 21,415 20,146 258
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 09 Jul 2020 7:12PM