S&P forecasts Indian economy to contract by 5% in 2020-21

by Nidhi Bhati

According to Standard & Poor (S&P) Global Ratings, the Indian economy will contract by five per cent during 2020-21, as the lockdown imposed to contain the Covid-19 pandemic has curtailed economic activity severely. Acknowledging a high degree of uncertainty about the rate of spread and peak of the coronavirus outbreak, S&P stated that it is assuming the pandemic will peak around the September 2020 quarter. The global rating agency further stated that the growth recovery would depend on three key factors. First, the speed with which the Covid-19 outbreak comes under control. Second, a labour market recovery will be key to getting the economy running again and finally, the ability of all sectors of the economy to restore their balance sheets following the adverse shock will be important.

References
1. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/s-p-says-indian-economy-to-contract-by-5-in-fy21-covid-19-to-peak-by-september-11590635529242.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate
Per cent
9.1 -0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
42.7 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
44.9 +0.7
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
39.4 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.12 5.15 3.39 0.57
Completed projects 0.85 1.65 1.70 0.17
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.77 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.53
Implementation stalled projects 0.90 0.15 9.30 0.07
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 19 Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20
All listed Companies
 Income 4.6 -2.3 -1.7 -4.0
 Expenses 2.7 -3.1 -2.2 -0.9
 Net profit 17.5 -1.3 -11.1 -44.3
 PAT margin (%) 6.2 5.3 5.1 3.0
 Count of Cos. 4,486 4,445 4,407 2,657
Non-financial Companies
 Income 2.4 -6.3 -5.5 -8.2
 Expenses 1.6 -6.7 -6.4 -4.1
 Net profit -7.5 -13.5 -14.1 -46.0
 PAT margin (%) 6.3 5.8 5.7 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 13.8
 Current assets 5.0 2.8
 Current liabilities 5.0 3.8
 Borrowings 8.4 14.9
 Reserves & surplus 6.0 4.3
 Count of Cos. 3,361 3,335 3,301 2,050
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 10 Jul 2020 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.3 13.2 4.3
 Expenses 9.8 13.4 2.8
 Net profit -39.9 20.7 15.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 10.3
 Assets 10.9 9.2 11.8
 Net worth 7.5 8.5 6.5
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.4 11.7
 Count of Cos. 26,220 24,732 364
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.5 13.6 0.1
 Expenses 8.6 13.8 -1.2
 Net profit -8.7 23.5 4.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 3.2 12.7
 Net fixed assets 7.1 4.9 30.4
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 3.6
 RONW (%) 5.7 7.0 15.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 0.9 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 6.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 69 -13
 Count of Cos. 21,415 20,146 258
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 09 Jul 2020 7:12PM