UBS Securities forecasts India's GDP to contract by 8.6% in FY21

by Nidhi Bhati

UBS Securities has downward revised its projection for India’s GDP in 2020-21 to 8.6 per cent contraction from 5.8 projected earlier. The Swiss brokerage also scaled down projection for India’s potential rate of growth to 5.8-6.2 per cent from its previous estimate of 7.1 per cent. This downward revision is on account of the permanent damage done by the pandemic because of the problems on company balance sheets and the modest policy response to the crisis, it added. UBS also advocated for a another round of fiscal stimulus from the government coupled with reforms.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/indias-gdp-to-contract-by-8-6-in-fy21-fiscal-stimulus-needed-soon-ubs-securities/articleshow/78147598.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.9 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
46.5 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
49.0 +0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
42.5 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
New projects 3.25 5.55 3.91 0.68
Completed projects 0.85 1.66 1.73 0.24
Stalled projects 0.41 0.61 0.76 0.11
Revived projects 0.43 0.83 0.42 0.59
Implementation stalled projects 0.91 0.13 9.78 0.08
Updated on: 26 Sep 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 19 Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20
All listed Companies
 Income -2.3 -1.7 -4.9 -28.1
 Expenses -3.1 -2.2 -1.8 -28.4
 Net profit -1.3 -10.8 -47.4 -41.1
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 5.1 2.4 5.3
 Count of Cos. 4,452 4,431 4,245 4,112
Non-financial Companies
 Income -6.3 -5.5 -8.9 -38.4
 Expenses -6.7 -6.4 -4.9 -38.4
 Net profit -13.8 -13.8 -48.4 -60.2
 PAT margin (%) 5.7 5.7 3.4 4.2
 Net fixed assets 10.4 12.9
 Current assets 4.9 3.0
 Current liabilities 5.0 4.8
 Borrowings 8.3 14.7
 Reserves & surplus 5.7 2.1
 Count of Cos. 3,328 3,307 3,199 3,098
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 26 Sep 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.4 1.2
 Expenses 9.9 13.6 1.6
 Net profit -40.3 21.9 -12.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.4 5.1
 Assets 10.9 9.3 9.9
 Net worth 7.5 8.6 6.8
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.3 7.2
 Count of Cos. 27,531 26,568 2,842
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.7 13.9 -2.3
 Expenses 8.8 14.0 -1.6
 Net profit -9.0 25.0 -19.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.2 5.8
 Net fixed assets 7.1 5.3 16.0
 Net worth 6.1 8.6 3.9
 RONW (%) 5.7 6.9 9.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 3.6
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 47
 Count of Cos. 22,401 21,603 2,134
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Sep 2020 8:59PM