Moody's forecasts 10.6% contraction in India's economic growth in FY21

by Nidhi Bhati

Moody’s Investors Service has revised India’s GDP forecast for 2020-21. It now expects the economy to witness a 10.6 per cent contraction as compared to the 11.5 per cent contraction projected earlier in September 2020. For the financial year 2021-22, Moody’s has revised upwards India’s GDP growth forecast to 10.8 per cent from 10.6 per cent projected earlier. The global ratings agency further stated that the forecast has been revised by keeping in mind the latest stimulus that prioritises manufacturing and job creation and focuses on longer-term growth. However, it said consumer confidence in India continues to remain relatively weak amid a relentless rise in fresh coronavirus cases. Moody’s expects fiscal deficit to widen, reaching around 12 per cent of GDP, with some upside risk, in the current financial year and narrowing to about seven per cent of GDP over the medium term.

References
1. https://www.livemint.com/news/india/moody-s-sees-india-fy21-gdp-contraction-at-10-6-vs-11-5-decline-earlier-11605770191315.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.6 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
51.8 -0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
53.6 -0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
48.9 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20
New projects 5.55 3.97 0.78 0.76
Completed projects 1.66 1.78 0.25 0.69
Stalled projects 0.61 0.73 0.11 0.08
Revived projects 0.83 0.42 0.68 0.34
Implementation stalled projects 0.13 10.02 0.09 0.03
Updated on: 01 Dec 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20
All listed Companies
 Income -1.7 -5.0 -27.6 -6.2
 Expenses -2.2 -1.9 -27.9 -10.1
 Net profit -10.9 -48.2 -40.2 45.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.1 2.4 5.3 8.3
 Count of Cos. 4,459 4,315 4,300 4,198
Non-financial Companies
 Income -5.5 -9.0 -37.4 -10.3
 Expenses -6.4 -5.0 -37.6 -14.0
 Net profit -13.9 -49.4 -55.7 30.0
 PAT margin (%) 5.7 3.3 4.5 8.1
 Net fixed assets 13.3 6.0
 Current assets 3.0 0.7
 Current liabilities 5.7 -2.9
 Borrowings 15.7 8.1
 Reserves & surplus 1.5 4.5
 Count of Cos. 3,312 3,229 3,221 3,160
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 01 Dec 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.4 0.3
 Expenses 9.9 13.7 0.9
 Net profit -40.5 21.9 -18.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.3 4.2
 Assets 10.9 9.5 9.3
 Net worth 7.5 8.6 4.8
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.2 6.0
 Count of Cos. 28,425 27,638 6,888
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.7 13.9 -2.8
 Expenses 8.8 14.1 -1.7
 Net profit -9.1 23.0 -27.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.1 4.4
 Net fixed assets 7.2 5.5 13.2
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 1.7
 RONW (%) 5.6 6.8 7.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 57
 Count of Cos. 23,077 22,402 5,084
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 Nov 2020 11:22AM