Q2 to be second quarter of economic contraction, opine analysts

by Nidhi Bhati

Rating agencies and economists are projecting a fall in India’s GDP in the September 2020 quarter. However, they have a difference in opinion on the rate of contraction, with the highest decline estimated at 12.7 per cent and lowest at 8.5 per cent. The economy declined by an unprecedented 23.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter as the government imposed a nationwide lockdown in March-end to stem the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.

GDP contraction in Q2FY21 (in % y-o-y)
Agency Earlier projection Latest projection
Barclays 8 8.5
ICRA 11-12.5 9.5
Care Ratings 9.9 9.9
Dun & Bradstreet 5 9.9
State Bank of India 12.5 10.7
India Ratings 11.9 11.9
NCAER - 12.7
Source: As per reports in Business Standard, Economic Times

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/analysts-revise-q2-gdp-projections-are-divided-on-sharpness-on-contraction-120111901219_1.html
2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/sbi-revises-q2-gdp-estimates-to-10-7-per-cent-from-12-5-per-cent-earlier/articleshow/79317892.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.6 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
51.8 -0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
53.6 -0.6
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
48.9 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20
New projects 5.55 3.97 0.78 0.76
Completed projects 1.66 1.78 0.25 0.69
Stalled projects 0.61 0.73 0.11 0.08
Revived projects 0.83 0.42 0.68 0.34
Implementation stalled projects 0.13 10.02 0.09 0.03
Updated on: 01 Dec 2020 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 19 Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20
All listed Companies
 Income -1.7 -5.0 -27.6 -6.2
 Expenses -2.2 -1.9 -27.9 -10.1
 Net profit -10.9 -48.2 -40.2 45.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.1 2.4 5.3 8.3
 Count of Cos. 4,459 4,315 4,300 4,198
Non-financial Companies
 Income -5.5 -9.0 -37.4 -10.3
 Expenses -6.4 -5.0 -37.6 -14.0
 Net profit -13.9 -49.4 -55.7 30.0
 PAT margin (%) 5.7 3.3 4.5 8.1
 Net fixed assets 13.3 6.0
 Current assets 3.0 0.7
 Current liabilities 5.7 -2.9
 Borrowings 15.7 8.1
 Reserves & surplus 1.5 4.5
 Count of Cos. 3,312 3,229 3,221 3,160
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 01 Dec 2020 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.4 13.4 0.3
 Expenses 9.9 13.7 0.9
 Net profit -40.5 21.9 -18.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.3 4.2
 Assets 10.9 9.5 9.3
 Net worth 7.5 8.6 4.8
 RONW (%) 3.5 4.2 6.0
 Count of Cos. 28,425 27,638 6,888
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.7 13.9 -2.8
 Expenses 8.8 14.1 -1.7
 Net profit -9.1 23.0 -27.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.1 4.4
 Net fixed assets 7.2 5.5 13.2
 Net worth 6.1 8.4 1.7
 RONW (%) 5.6 6.8 7.5
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.4 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 77 70 57
 Count of Cos. 23,077 22,402 5,084
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 28 Nov 2020 11:22AM