Q2 to be second quarter of economic contraction, opine analysts

by Nidhi Bhati

Rating agencies and economists are projecting a fall in India’s GDP in the September 2020 quarter. However, they have a difference in opinion on the rate of contraction, with the highest decline estimated at 12.7 per cent and lowest at 8.5 per cent. The economy declined by an unprecedented 23.9 per cent in the June 2020 quarter as the government imposed a nationwide lockdown in March-end to stem the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic.

GDP contraction in Q2FY21 (in % y-o-y)
Agency Earlier projection Latest projection
Barclays 8 8.5
ICRA 11-12.5 9.5
Care Ratings 9.9 9.9
Dun & Bradstreet 5 9.9
State Bank of India 12.5 10.7
India Ratings 11.9 11.9
NCAER - 12.7
Source: As per reports in Business Standard, Economic Times

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/analysts-revise-q2-gdp-projections-are-divided-on-sharpness-on-contraction-120111901219_1.html
2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/sbi-revises-q2-gdp-estimates-to-10-7-per-cent-from-12-5-per-cent-earlier/articleshow/79317892.cms