Vaccine driven turnaround in economy not before Q2FY22: Experts

by Nidhi Bhati

Experts are expecting a vaccine-driven turnaround (pivot point) in India’s economy only post July 2021 and full resumption of economic activity by the December 2021 quarter, as per a report in Economic Times. The vaccine pivot point is defined as the point at which vaccines start to become more widely available and show demonstrative success in suppressing the virus, allowing governments to lift most social distancing restrictions and citizens to become less fearful. HDFC Bank and Icra Ratings see the country reaching the vaccine pivot point in the December 2021 quarter, while Care Rating and Nomura estimate that it will happen sometime during the September 2021 quarter. Experts further estimate that the country’s Covid-19 vaccination drive would cost 0.2-0.5 per cent of GDP.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/post-jabs-india-may-get-back-on-its-feet-in-2nd-half-of-2021/articleshow/80276713.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.8 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
55.7 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
57.7 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
52.5 +0.9
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
New projects 3.83 0.91 1.33 0.93
Completed projects 1.73 0.26 0.72 0.69
Stalled projects 0.73 0.11 0.08 0.30
Revived projects 0.42 0.68 0.29 0.11
Implementation stalled projects 10.22 0.09 0.07 0.12
Updated on: 07 Mar 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
All listed Companies
 Income -5.0 -27.6 -6.3 1.5
 Expenses -1.8 -27.9 -10.3 -0.1
 Net profit -51.1 -40.3 47.2 58.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 5.3 8.4 8.6
 Count of Cos. 4,376 4,373 4,372 4,323
Non-financial Companies
 Income -9.0 -37.4 -10.5 0.0
 Expenses -4.8 -37.7 -14.2 -1.0
 Net profit -52.2 -56.0 31.5 55.7
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 4.5 8.1 9.0
 Net fixed assets 13.5 5.8
 Current assets 2.5 0.7
 Current liabilities 5.4 -2.8
 Borrowings 15.8 8.1
 Reserves & surplus 1.7 4.4
 Count of Cos. 3,257 3,255 3,254 3,223
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 07 Mar 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.5 13.4 0.0
 Expenses 9.9 13.8 0.1
 Net profit -40.6 15.8 -10.5
 PAT margin (%) 1.9 2.2 3.7
 Assets 10.9 9.6 9.3
 Net worth 7.3 8.4 4.7
 RONW (%) 3.3 3.9 5.4
 Count of Cos. 30,466 29,959 11,603
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.6 14.1 -2.9
 Expenses 8.8 14.3 -2.3
 Net profit -10.3 21.3 -22.4
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.0 3.6
 Net fixed assets 7.2 5.5 12.0
 Net worth 5.9 8.0 1.7
 RONW (%) 5.5 6.5 6.4
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.9
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.3 2.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 79 72 61
 Count of Cos. 24,480 24,021 8,388
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 05 Mar 2021 8:23AM