Capex cut by states may dampen overall growth, opine experts

by Nidhi Bhati

State governments’ move to compress capital expenditure (capex), in order to maintain a fiscal balance, may dampen overall growth, as per a report in Bloomberg. States account for about 60 per cent of total government expenditure on infrastructure and asset creation. However, a continuous decline in tax revenue and the cost of combating the Covid-19 pandemic has left most states cash-strapped. Also, unlike the central government, states do not have the flexibility to borrow more to maintain spending as that would lead to a fiscal deficit blowout. As per the Reserve Bank of India estimates, every one rupee spent by the central government will lead to an increase in GDP by Rs.3.14, while similar spending by states will boost output by Rs.2. However, data shows that capex of 17 states contracted by 23.5 per cent y-o-y during April-December 2020. As per experts, this could lead to a shortfall of around Rs.1.8 trillion in the current financial year’s spending target. This gap would further wipe out Rs.3.6 trillion from economic output, where as additional spending by the central government in the current year would add just Rs.848 billion despite a higher multiplier effect.

References
1. https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/cash-strapped-states-threaten-india-s-double-digit-growth-goal
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.8 0.0
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
55.7 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
57.7 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
52.5 +0.9
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
New projects 3.83 0.91 1.33 0.93
Completed projects 1.73 0.26 0.72 0.69
Stalled projects 0.73 0.11 0.08 0.30
Revived projects 0.42 0.68 0.29 0.11
Implementation stalled projects 10.22 0.09 0.07 0.12
Updated on: 07 Mar 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 20 Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20
All listed Companies
 Income -5.0 -27.6 -6.3 1.5
 Expenses -1.8 -27.9 -10.3 -0.1
 Net profit -51.1 -40.3 47.2 58.8
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 5.3 8.4 8.6
 Count of Cos. 4,376 4,373 4,372 4,323
Non-financial Companies
 Income -9.0 -37.4 -10.5 0.0
 Expenses -4.8 -37.7 -14.2 -1.0
 Net profit -52.2 -56.0 31.5 55.7
 PAT margin (%) 3.1 4.5 8.1 9.0
 Net fixed assets 13.5 5.8
 Current assets 2.5 0.7
 Current liabilities 5.4 -2.8
 Borrowings 15.8 8.1
 Reserves & surplus 1.7 4.4
 Count of Cos. 3,257 3,255 3,254 3,223
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 07 Mar 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY18 FY19 FY20
All Companies
 Income 8.5 13.4 0.0
 Expenses 9.9 13.8 0.1
 Net profit -40.6 15.8 -10.5
 PAT margin (%) 1.9 2.2 3.7
 Assets 10.9 9.6 9.3
 Net worth 7.3 8.4 4.7
 RONW (%) 3.3 3.9 5.4
 Count of Cos. 30,466 29,959 11,603
Non-financial Companies
 Income 8.6 14.1 -2.9
 Expenses 8.8 14.3 -2.3
 Net profit -10.3 21.3 -22.4
 PAT margin (%) 2.7 3.0 3.6
 Net fixed assets 7.2 5.5 12.0
 Net worth 5.9 8.0 1.7
 RONW (%) 5.5 6.5 6.4
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.9
 Interest cover (times) 2.1 2.3 2.4
 Net working capital cycle (days) 79 72 61
 Count of Cos. 24,480 24,021 8,388
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 05 Mar 2021 8:23AM