Growth momentum likely to weaken in mid-2021: UBS Securities

by Nidhi Bhati

Economists at UBS Securities India led by Tanvee Gupta Jain have cautioned that the growth momentum seen in the economy in recent quarters could slowdown by mid-2021 as households that lost incomes during the pandemic to the tune of Rs.13 trillion could drag consumption with a lag. Given this, sustainability of the recovery seen in the second and third quarters and also the growth outlook are dependent on the revival in new investment intentions and easing of financial sector stress, they said.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/pandemic-eats-up-rs-13-lakh-crore-of-household-income-report/articleshow/81349416.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.4 +0.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
57.5 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
58.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
55.2 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.40 1.16 1.40
Completed projects 0.26 0.73 0.83 0.62
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.13
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.6 -6.3 1.6 6.2
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 4.5
 Net profit -40.3 47.2 57.9 12.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 8.3 8.5 21.1
 Count of Cos. 4,400 4,400 4,371 22
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 6.1
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 5.2
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.6 9.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 20.7
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.5
 Current assets 0.7 0.5
 Current liabilities -2.7 5.1
 Borrowings 8.3 6.4
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 5.7
 Count of Cos. 3,265 3,265 3,251 17
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 -0.1 -8.7
 Expenses 13.6 -0.1 -9.8
 Net profit 15.4 -10.8 0.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 9.5
 Assets 9.6 7.7 0.3
 Net worth 8.5 4.3 -0.5
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.6 9.3
 Count of Cos. 30,693 29,280 30
Non-financial Companies
 Income 13.9 -2.0 -9.4
 Expenses 14.1 -1.7 -10.7
 Net profit 21.7 -20.9 0.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.2
 Net fixed assets 5.5 8.8 0.0
 Net worth 8.1 2.0 -0.7
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 10.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 18.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 71 70 47
 Count of Cos. 24,568 23,344 23
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 11 Apr 2021 5:03PM