A month-long national lockdown may dent India's GDP by 2%: BofAS

by Nidhi Bhati

Analysts at Bank of America Securities (BofAS) have cautioned that a month-long national lockdown to stop the surge in coronavirus cases can dent India’s GDP by up to two per cent. The lockdown will also aggravate fiscal risks, it added. Given the high economic cost, analysts expect the Center and state governments to try to contain the spread with the tightening of Covid-19 regulations, night curfews and localized lockdowns. In its base case, the BofAS continues to see a nine per cent jump in the real gross value added growth for 2021-22. However, it warned that there can be a three percentage point impact to the estimate in case of a national lockdown.

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/a-month-long-national-coronavirus-lockdown-can-dent-gdp-by-2-report-121040600963_1.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.4 +0.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
57.5 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
58.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
55.2 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.40 1.16 1.40
Completed projects 0.26 0.73 0.83 0.62
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.13
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.6 -6.3 1.6 6.2
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 4.5
 Net profit -40.3 47.2 57.9 12.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 8.3 8.5 21.1
 Count of Cos. 4,400 4,400 4,371 22
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 6.1
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 5.2
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.6 9.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 20.7
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.5
 Current assets 0.7 0.5
 Current liabilities -2.7 5.1
 Borrowings 8.3 6.4
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 5.7
 Count of Cos. 3,265 3,265 3,251 17
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 -0.1 -8.7
 Expenses 13.6 -0.1 -9.8
 Net profit 15.4 -10.8 0.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 9.5
 Assets 9.6 7.7 0.3
 Net worth 8.5 4.3 -0.5
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.6 9.3
 Count of Cos. 30,693 29,280 30
Non-financial Companies
 Income 13.9 -2.0 -9.4
 Expenses 14.1 -1.7 -10.7
 Net profit 21.7 -20.9 0.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.2
 Net fixed assets 5.5 8.8 0.0
 Net worth 8.1 2.0 -0.7
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 10.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 18.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 71 70 47
 Count of Cos. 24,568 23,344 23
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 11 Apr 2021 5:03PM