ICRA sees no room for rate cut in near future

by Nidhi Bhati

ICRA expects an extended pause for the repo rate through 2021, with the reverse repo rate and accommodative stance to be kept unchanged during April-September 2021. The rating agency sees no rate cut in near feature unless economic activity undergoes another deep Covid-induced disruption. It further stated that the announcement of the secondary market government securities (G-sec) acquisition programme (GSAP 1.0) should ease the anxieties of the bond market regarding the size of the government borrowing programme for 2021-22. Aided by the expectation of comfortable cash balances of the central government, ICRA expects the 10-year G-sec yield to range between 6.1 per cent and 6.2 per cent in the next two months.

References
1. https://www.icraresearch.in/research/ViewResearchReport/3637
2. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/not-a-lot-of-room-for-future-rate-cuts-says-icras-aditi-nayar-on-the-mpcs-projections/articleshow/81964298.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.4 +0.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
57.5 0.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
58.9 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
55.2 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.40 1.16 1.40
Completed projects 0.26 0.73 0.83 0.62
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.13
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.6 -6.3 1.6 6.2
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 4.5
 Net profit -40.3 47.2 57.9 12.4
 PAT margin (%) 5.3 8.3 8.5 21.1
 Count of Cos. 4,400 4,400 4,371 22
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 6.1
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 5.2
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.6 9.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 20.7
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.5
 Current assets 0.7 0.5
 Current liabilities -2.7 5.1
 Borrowings 8.3 6.4
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 5.7
 Count of Cos. 3,265 3,265 3,251 17
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Apr 2021 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 -0.1 -8.7
 Expenses 13.6 -0.1 -9.8
 Net profit 15.4 -10.8 0.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 9.5
 Assets 9.6 7.7 0.3
 Net worth 8.5 4.3 -0.5
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.6 9.3
 Count of Cos. 30,693 29,280 30
Non-financial Companies
 Income 13.9 -2.0 -9.4
 Expenses 14.1 -1.7 -10.7
 Net profit 21.7 -20.9 0.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.2
 Net fixed assets 5.5 8.8 0.0
 Net worth 8.1 2.0 -0.7
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 10.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.0 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 18.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 71 70 47
 Count of Cos. 24,568 23,344 23
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 11 Apr 2021 5:03PM