Covid-19 curbs to dent FY22 GDP by 0.2-1%: ET poll

by Nidhi Bhati

Economists that participated in a poll conducted by Economic Times opine that the overall impact on the economy due to the second Covid-19 wave could be worse than earlier predictions. They expect India’s GDP for 2021-22 to get a hit of 0.2-1 percentage points owing to the recent clampdown. Most economists also believe that the full recovery is likely to be pushed back by three months. But they said that once the curbs are removed, the recovery would be far more sustained on account of the vaccination drive. Further, the government’s commitment to avoid blanket lockdowns suggests that the economic impact would not be like that of last year, experts added.

Impact of second wave restrictions
Institution % hit to FY22 GDP
Barclays 0.2
ICRA 0.5
Yes Bank 0.5
Care Rating 0.5-0.6
Nomura 0.9
DBS Bank 0.5-1
HDFC Bank 1
Source: As per a report in Economic Times

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/economists-say-fy22-gdp-may-take-0-2-1-hit/articleshow/82075262.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.7 -0.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
54.8 -1.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
56.6 -0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
52.0 -1.7
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.41 1.16 1.52
Completed projects 0.28 0.73 0.83 0.88
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 11.7
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 6.6
 Net profit -40.5 47.2 57.7 53.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.5 13.3
 Count of Cos. 4,401 4,402 4,376 274
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 16.2
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 12.8
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.3 34.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 13.4
 Net fixed assets 5.9 9.2
 Current assets 0.7 11.1
 Current liabilities -2.7 -15.8
 Borrowings 8.3 -11.0
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 21.4
 Count of Cos. 3,267 3,267 3,253 200
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 -6.4
 Expenses 13.8 0.0 -7.3
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 0.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 10.0
 Assets 9.8 8.1 0.7
 Net worth 8.4 4.4 -0.1
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 11.7
 Count of Cos. 30,871 29,514 44
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -6.7
 Expenses 14.3 -1.6 -7.8
 Net profit 21.7 -20.6 1.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.6
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.4 -0.2
 Net worth 8.0 2.1 -0.2
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 21.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 37
 Count of Cos. 24,702 23,523 36
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 May 2021 1:37PM