UBS raises concerns over India's elevated public debt

by Nidhi Bhati

UBS Securities India Chief Economist Tanvee Gupta Jain has flagged concerns over India’s elevated public debt and higher fiscal deficit at 11.8 per cent in 2020-21. According to her, India will have the third-highest public debt to GDP ratio in emerging markets after Argentina and Brazil in 2021. Stating that the country’s fiscal position has worsened due to the pandemic, Jain also cited credible and transparent accounting of subsidies and a significant revenue shortfall as reasons behind the situation. The rise in the primary deficit, which is fiscal deficit less interest payments, and the deterioration in the interest rate growth differential have raised debt sustainability concerns. Jain said that the ability and speed with which the government can deliver on budget promises will be key to debt sustainability. This will especially be true for the aggressive divestment targets and the higher public capex to help support nominal GDP growth. She also cautioned about a possible downgrade in the sovereign rating by one of the three rating agencies in the next 12-18 months.

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/elevated-public-debt-in-fiscal-year-2021-matter-of-concern-report-121041500754_1.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.7 -0.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
54.8 -1.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
56.6 -0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
52.0 -1.7
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.41 1.16 1.52
Completed projects 0.28 0.73 0.83 0.88
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 11.7
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 6.6
 Net profit -40.5 47.2 57.7 53.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.5 13.3
 Count of Cos. 4,401 4,402 4,376 274
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 16.2
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 12.8
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.3 34.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 13.4
 Net fixed assets 5.9 9.2
 Current assets 0.7 11.1
 Current liabilities -2.7 -15.8
 Borrowings 8.3 -11.0
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 21.4
 Count of Cos. 3,267 3,267 3,253 200
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 -6.4
 Expenses 13.8 0.0 -7.3
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 0.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 10.0
 Assets 9.8 8.1 0.7
 Net worth 8.4 4.4 -0.1
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 11.7
 Count of Cos. 30,871 29,514 44
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -6.7
 Expenses 14.3 -1.6 -7.8
 Net profit 21.7 -20.6 1.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.6
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.4 -0.2
 Net worth 8.0 2.1 -0.2
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 21.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 37
 Count of Cos. 24,702 23,523 36
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 May 2021 1:37PM