Spike in coronavirus cases poses risk to economic recovery: BofAS

by Nidhi Bhati

Bank of America Securities (BofAS) has stated that the recent surge in coronavirus cases in India poses risks to their three per cent real GVA growth forecast for the March 2021 quarter. The index had first time in 2020-21 turned positive in December 2020 after declining for nine straight months. Although, the agency did not provide any new likely GDP number for the March 2021 quarter, it estimates a month of national lockdown to cost 100-200 basis points (bps). BofAS further added that growth is still weak, amplified by the steep fall in key economic activity indicators. The seven-component BofA India activity indicator slowed to one per cent in February 2021 from 1.3 per cent in January 2021. Of the 7 constituents of the India activity index, four slowed in February over the previous month.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/second-wave-of-covid-19-poses-risk-to-economic-recovery-q4-gdp-to-be-hit-report/articleshow/82101055.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.7 -0.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
54.8 -1.0
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
56.6 -0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
52.0 -1.7
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
New projects 0.96 1.41 1.16 1.52
Completed projects 0.28 0.73 0.83 0.88
Stalled projects 0.11 0.08 0.31 0.14
Revived projects 0.68 0.29 0.11 0.14
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.07 0.15 0.30
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 20 Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21
All listed Companies
 Income -27.7 -6.3 1.6 11.7
 Expenses -27.9 -10.3 0.1 6.6
 Net profit -40.5 47.2 57.7 53.3
 PAT margin (%) 5.2 8.3 8.5 13.3
 Count of Cos. 4,401 4,402 4,376 274
Non-financial Companies
 Income -37.4 -10.5 0.2 16.2
 Expenses -37.7 -14.2 -0.7 12.8
 Net profit -56.0 31.5 54.3 34.1
 PAT margin (%) 4.5 8.1 8.9 13.4
 Net fixed assets 5.9 9.2
 Current assets 0.7 11.1
 Current liabilities -2.7 -15.8
 Borrowings 8.3 -11.0
 Reserves & surplus 4.2 21.4
 Count of Cos. 3,267 3,267 3,253 200
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 06 May 2021 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.0 -6.4
 Expenses 13.8 0.0 -7.3
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 0.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 10.0
 Assets 9.8 8.1 0.7
 Net worth 8.4 4.4 -0.1
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 11.7
 Count of Cos. 30,871 29,514 44
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.1 -1.9 -6.7
 Expenses 14.3 -1.6 -7.8
 Net profit 21.7 -20.6 1.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.4 10.6
 Net fixed assets 5.6 9.4 -0.2
 Net worth 8.0 2.1 -0.2
 RONW (%) 6.4 5.0 13.2
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.1
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 2.0 21.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 73 80 37
 Count of Cos. 24,702 23,523 36
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 04 May 2021 1:37PM