RBI will not change rates, stance: Economists

While economists project inflation to ease further in the coming months, they believe that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will continue with its accommodative monetary policy stance during its upcoming policy review meet in October 2021, as per a report in Business Standard. Amid risks to the growth outlook, economists expect the central bank to start increasing rates only in the next fiscal year. Deutsche Bank chief economist Kaushik Das is of the view that inflation could fall to 4.5 per cent year-on-year or even 4.2 per cent in September if the current price momentum continues and if onion and potato prices remain contained through the end of this month. According to him, if there is no third Covid-19 wave till the festival season in October, then the RBI can potentially increase the reverse repo rate by 20 basis points (bps) to 3.6 per cent in the December 2021 policy, while keeping the accommodative stance unchanged. ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar believes that policy normalisation could commence in February 2022, with a change in the stance of monetary policy to neutral from accommodative, followed by a hike in the repo rate of 25 bps each in the April 2022 and June 2022 meetings.

References
1. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/as-inflation-eases-rbi-to-continue-with-accommodative-stance-economists-121091401462_1.html
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.5 -1.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
57.8 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
60.1 +0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
54.3 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
New projects 2.53 1.42 2.11 2.72
Completed projects 0.77 0.86 1.15 0.70
Stalled projects 0.08 0.31 0.26 0.32
Revived projects 0.27 0.15 0.22 0.12
Implementation stalled projects 0.09 0.20 0.32 0.25
Updated on: 19 Sep 2021 9:28AM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 20 Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21
All listed Companies
 Income -6.3 1.6 14.9 42.2
 Expenses -10.3 0.1 7.2 42.2
 Net profit 47.9 58.1 325.4 128.6
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.4 8.9 9.1
 Count of Cos. 4,429 4,449 4,351 4,316
Non-financial Companies
 Income -10.5 0.2 17.5 61.1
 Expenses -14.2 -0.8 10.3 62.9
 Net profit 31.8 54.6 233.6 184.7
 PAT margin (%) 8.1 8.8 9.1 8.6
 Net fixed assets 5.9 2.3
 Current assets 0.8 4.6
 Current liabilities -1.8 0.7
 Borrowings 8.5 -4.2
 Reserves & surplus 3.7 12.0
 Count of Cos. 3,282 3,303 3,248 3,233
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Sep 2021 9:28AM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 0.2 -0.4
 Expenses 13.6 0.1 -2.9
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 48.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 7.6
 Assets 9.8 8.5 13.9
 Net worth 8.5 4.4 16.0
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 9.5
 Count of Cos. 31,664 30,513 3,698
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.0 -1.7 -3.0
 Expenses 14.2 -1.4 -4.8
 Net profit 21.4 -21.2 30.9
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.3 7.3
 Net fixed assets 5.6 10.0 3.4
 Net worth 7.9 2.1 14.4
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 11.0
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.5
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 1.9 4.6
 Net working capital cycle (days) 74 81 59
 Count of Cos. 25,365 24,409 2,691
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 12 Sep 2021 7:10PM