Rising commodity prices pose macro risks to India: Morgan Stanley

Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that rising international oil and coal prices pose macro risks for the Indian economy. There are upside risks to inflation and growth. According to analysts, growth will only improve from a two-year compounded annual growth rate, which will lead to normalisation of the policy. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may start the process of policy normalisation with a 0.15-0.20 per cent hike in the reverse repo rate in December 2021 and February 2022. If growth improves further, the central bank may also hike repo rate in February. Inflation will move back toward 5.5 per cent by end of March 2022. Morgan Stanley further stated that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices can increase CPI inflation by 0.40 per cent and widen the country’s current account deficit (CAD) by 0.3 per cent of GDP.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/rising-global-oil-and-coal-prices-pose-macro-risks-analysts/articleshow/87017920.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.7 +0.4
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
58.2 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
60.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
54.3 +0.8
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21
New projects 1.50 2.20 2.55 1.11
Completed projects 0.87 1.17 0.73 0.93
Stalled projects 0.30 0.26 0.32 0.03
Revived projects 0.15 0.22 0.12 0.19
Implementation stalled projects 0.20 0.32 0.25 0.21
Updated on: 24 Oct 2021 3:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 20 Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21
All listed Companies
 Income 1.6 14.9 41.9 27.2
 Expenses 0.1 7.3 42.1 27.6
 Net profit 58.3 326.2 124.9 34.3
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.9 8.9 14.5
 Count of Cos. 4,451 4,364 4,352 320
Non-financial Companies
 Income 0.1 17.4 60.7 34.9
 Expenses -0.7 10.5 62.8 36.7
 Net profit 52.4 221.6 179.7 36.9
 PAT margin (%) 8.8 9.1 8.4 13.8
 Net fixed assets 2.3 8.9
 Current assets 4.4 28.6
 Current liabilities 0.8 9.7
 Borrowings -4.3 8.9
 Reserves & surplus 11.9 13.0
 Count of Cos. 3,299 3,252 3,251 233
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 24 Oct 2021 3:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.3 0.2 -1.7
 Expenses 13.6 0.2 -4.3
 Net profit 15.2 -10.4 50.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.1 2.1 7.3
 Assets 9.8 8.5 12.9
 Net worth 8.5 4.5 13.7
 RONW (%) 3.8 3.5 9.0
 Count of Cos. 32,100 31,012 5,853
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.0 -1.7 -4.1
 Expenses 14.2 -1.4 -6.2
 Net profit 21.2 -21.2 37.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.9 2.3 6.8
 Net fixed assets 5.6 10.0 2.6
 Net worth 7.9 2.1 11.6
 RONW (%) 6.4 4.9 9.9
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 2.3 1.9 3.7
 Net working capital cycle (days) 74 81 70
 Count of Cos. 25,659 24,739 4,261
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 19 Oct 2021 1:55PM