Households' inflation expectations impact savings in debt-based instruments: RBI paper

Inflation expectations play a vital role in regulating households’ consumption behaviour and the consequent savings, as per a paper authored by Devendra Pratap Singh, Aditya Mishra and Purnima Shaw of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). An increase in the households’ inflation expectations impacts their savings in debt-based instruments, like bank term deposits, negatively. The authors opine that if households expect inflation to pick up in the medium term and they suspect low returns due to low real interest rates, they may prefer to invest in commodities like precious metals or jewellery. On the other hand, in a scenario of high real interest rates, households would find it more gainful to save rather than spend on present consumption.

References
1. https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=53084
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
7.0 -0.8
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
59.2 +0.3
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
60.6 +0.5
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
57.0 0.0
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21
New projects 2.36 2.74 2.25 2.51
Completed projects 1.17 0.74 1.18 1.52
Stalled projects 0.28 0.33 0.03 0.03
Revived projects 0.23 0.12 0.28 0.39
Implementation stalled projects 0.34 0.38 0.25 0.66
Updated on: 18 Jan 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Mar 21 Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21
All listed Companies
 Income 15.1 39.2 27.9 15.7
 Expenses 7.4 38.6 27.3 17.2
 Net profit 337.8 142.5 52.6 9.3
 PAT margin (%) 8.8 9.0 9.6 19.5
 Count of Cos. 4,401 4,495 4,545 122
Non-financial Companies
 Income 17.8 56.1 36.1 18.0
 Expenses 10.7 57.1 36.6 21.6
 Net profit 222.4 199.3 59.5 3.5
 PAT margin (%) 9.0 8.5 8.8 18.2
 Net fixed assets 2.3 4.9
 Current assets 4.3 11.0
 Current liabilities 1.2 0.9
 Borrowings -4.5 12.2
 Reserves & surplus 11.7 12.4
 Count of Cos. 3,247 3,301 3,304 89
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Jan 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY19 FY20 FY21
All Companies
 Income 13.4 0.6 -1.5
 Expenses 13.8 0.4 -4.1
 Net profit 12.7 -6.9 62.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 2.1 5.7
 Assets 9.9 8.8 10.7
 Net worth 8.2 4.5 13.3
 RONW (%) 3.6 3.5 8.2
 Count of Cos. 32,530 31,471 11,634
Non-financial Companies
 Income 14.2 -1.2 -3.0
 Expenses 14.3 -0.9 -5.3
 Net profit 22.1 -21.1 49.3
 PAT margin (%) 2.8 2.3 5.3
 Net fixed assets 6.0 11.2 1.5
 Net worth 7.8 2.2 11.0
 RONW (%) 6.3 4.9 9.1
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.0 1.1 0.8
 Interest cover (times) 2.2 1.9 2.8
 Net working capital cycle (days) 74 81 80
 Count of Cos. 25,943 25,015 8,657
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 18 Jan 2022 2:48PM