Economists expect more rate hikes as CPI inflation hits 8-year high

With the consumer price index (CPI) inflation touching an eight year high of 7.8 per cent in April 2022, experts foresee rapid rate hikes during rest of the fiscal. Barclays chief India economist Rahul Bajoria expects the latest reading of inflation to put pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to further raise rates as much as 50 basis points (bps) in the upcoming June monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting and then slow the cycle in August to 25 bps hike. ICRA’s chief economist Aditi Nayar foresees a high likelihood that the MPC will raise the repo rate by 40 bps and 35 bps, respectively, over the next two policies to 5.15 per cent. She continues to see the terminal rate at 5.5 per cent by the middle of 2023. Emkay Global Financial Services’ lead economist Madhavi Arora is of the view that the MPC may front-load rates by another 25 bps-40 bps. She expects the terminal rate to be around or a tad higher than 5.50 per cent. Estimating inflation to trend above six per cent in 2022-23, Kotak Institutional Equities’ senior economist Suvodeep Rakshit said that the RBI may hike repo rate by 35-40 bps along with 50 bps hike in cash reserve ratio (CRR).

References
1. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/inflation-shocker-as-cpi-inflation-hits-8-year-high-experts-say-brace-for-rapid-rbi-rate-hikes/2522982/
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
8.0 +1.3
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
68.4 +0.8
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
67.6 +0.9
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
69.7 +0.7
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22
New projects 2.94 3.26 3.53 5.91
Completed projects 0.71 1.28 2.76 1.15
Stalled projects 0.33 0.28 0.06 0.30
Revived projects 1.14 0.39 2.07 0.28
Implementation stalled projects 0.64 0.26 0.65 0.07
Updated on: 25 Jun 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22
All listed Companies
 Income 42.3 27.5 23.4 21.6
 Expenses 41.8 26.7 21.3 20.5
 Net profit 140.6 55.3 35.4 32.8
 PAT margin (%) 8.9 9.6 9.0 9.1
 Count of Cos. 4,564 4,690 4,733 4,508
Non-financial Companies
 Income 61.1 35.7 29.1 25.9
 Expenses 62.4 36.0 28.8 26.6
 Net profit 195.2 59.5 19.0 12.9
 PAT margin (%) 8.4 8.8 7.5 7.9
 Net fixed assets 4.9 2.2
 Current assets 10.8 15.3
 Current liabilities 0.8 11.7
 Borrowings 12.1 3.7
 Reserves & surplus 12.4 11.5
 Count of Cos. 3,336 3,387 3,428 3,280
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 25 Jun 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -1.1 13.6
 Expenses 0.4 -3.4 10.5
 Net profit -4.4 72.2 58.0
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.5 10.9
 Assets 9.0 9.7 9.3
 Net worth 4.8 11.7 9.9
 RONW (%) 3.4 6.9 13.5
 Count of Cos. 32,455 29,998 539
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.2 -2.3 26.3
 Expenses -1.0 -4.4 25.6
 Net profit -20.8 63.5 42.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 4.2 13.8
 Net fixed assets 11.2 2.0 -1.9
 Net worth 2.2 10.7 11.2
 RONW (%) 4.7 8.0 22.6
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.3
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.5 10.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 81 85 16
 Count of Cos. 25,743 23,675 386
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Jun 2022 11:46AM