Retail inflation likely to remain above 6% in near term: Economists

Economists opine that India’s headline retail inflation is likely to remain above the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’ upper tolerance range in the near term. They also foresee more rate hikes in the coming months. Nomura economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi expect headline inflation to remain above six per cent until February 2023. IDFC First Bank expects headline inflation to average at 6.5 per cent in 2022-23. While Nomura and IDFC First Bank expect the RBI to hike repo rate by another 60 basis points (bps) to six per cent, Barclays expect the RBI to deliver two 25 bps rate hikes each at the September and December meetings, taking the repo rate to 5.90 per cent.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/inflation-may-remain-elevated-despite-july-dip-analysts/articleshow/93586373.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.5 -2.7
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
76.2 -0.5
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
74.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
78.7 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
New projects 3.41 4.02 8.19 4.34
Completed projects 1.29 2.77 1.29 1.18
Stalled projects 0.28 0.08 0.43 0.27
Revived projects 0.39 1.98 0.32 0.28
Implementation stalled projects 0.26 0.66 0.09 0.29
Updated on: 26 Sep 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
All listed Companies
 Income 27.5 23.4 20.8 40.3
 Expenses 26.7 21.3 19.9 41.7
 Net profit 55.7 35.4 30.4 20.5
 PAT margin (%) 9.6 9.0 8.9 7.3
 Count of Cos. 4,703 4,750 4,651 4,568
Non-financial Companies
 Income 35.7 29.2 24.9 50.3
 Expenses 36.1 28.8 25.8 53.4
 Net profit 58.1 19.2 10.1 7.6
 PAT margin (%) 8.7 7.5 7.7 5.8
 Net fixed assets 4.9 2.1
 Current assets 11.1 15.1
 Current liabilities 0.9 11.8
 Borrowings 12.2 3.4
 Reserves & surplus 12.6 11.2
 Count of Cos. 3,394 3,439 3,375 3,346
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 26 Sep 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -1.1 25.6
 Expenses 0.4 -3.3 23.9
 Net profit -6.1 72.0 63.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.3 8.9
 Assets 9.0 9.8 9.7
 Net worth 4.8 11.8 14.3
 RONW (%) 3.3 6.7 12.7
 Count of Cos. 32,686 30,979 5,135
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.1 -2.1 32.3
 Expenses -0.9 -4.0 31.7
 Net profit -22.4 59.3 59.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 3.9 7.8
 Net fixed assets 11.4 2.3 2.0
 Net worth 2.1 10.3 14.7
 RONW (%) 4.6 7.5 14.1
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.4 4.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 82 87 52
 Count of Cos. 25,868 24,352 3,741
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Sep 2022 10:23AM