Retail inflation pegged at 6.5% in 2022-23: Kotak Economic Research

Kotak Economic Research has forecast retail price inflation in 2022-23 at 6.5 per cent. The retail inflation trajectory is projected to be lower than the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s estimates by 70 basis points (bps) in first half of calendar year 2023. Kotak expects inflation to remain elevated and not return to the sub-six per cent level before February 2023. It also sees the RBI opting for an additional 35-60 basis points (bps) repo rate hike to 5.75-6 per cent by the end of December 2022.

References
1. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/inflation-to-remain-elevated-with-a-return-to-sub-6-not-likely-before-feb-2023-kotak-report/articleshow/93590647.cms
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
6.5 -2.7
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
76.2 -0.5
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
74.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
78.7 -1.1
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
New projects 3.41 4.02 8.19 4.34
Completed projects 1.29 2.77 1.29 1.18
Stalled projects 0.28 0.08 0.43 0.27
Revived projects 0.39 1.98 0.32 0.28
Implementation stalled projects 0.26 0.66 0.09 0.29
Updated on: 26 Sep 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22
All listed Companies
 Income 27.5 23.4 20.8 40.3
 Expenses 26.7 21.3 19.9 41.7
 Net profit 55.7 35.4 30.4 20.5
 PAT margin (%) 9.6 9.0 8.9 7.3
 Count of Cos. 4,703 4,750 4,651 4,568
Non-financial Companies
 Income 35.7 29.2 24.9 50.3
 Expenses 36.1 28.8 25.8 53.4
 Net profit 58.1 19.2 10.1 7.6
 PAT margin (%) 8.7 7.5 7.7 5.8
 Net fixed assets 4.9 2.1
 Current assets 11.1 15.1
 Current liabilities 0.9 11.8
 Borrowings 12.2 3.4
 Reserves & surplus 12.6 11.2
 Count of Cos. 3,394 3,439 3,375 3,346
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 26 Sep 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -1.1 25.6
 Expenses 0.4 -3.3 23.9
 Net profit -6.1 72.0 63.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.3 8.9
 Assets 9.0 9.8 9.7
 Net worth 4.8 11.8 14.3
 RONW (%) 3.3 6.7 12.7
 Count of Cos. 32,686 30,979 5,135
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.1 -2.1 32.3
 Expenses -0.9 -4.0 31.7
 Net profit -22.4 59.3 59.7
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 3.9 7.8
 Net fixed assets 11.4 2.3 2.0
 Net worth 2.1 10.3 14.7
 RONW (%) 4.6 7.5 14.1
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.4 4.9
 Net working capital cycle (days) 82 87 52
 Count of Cos. 25,868 24,352 3,741
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 20 Sep 2022 10:23AM