Depreciating rupee stokes concerns over CAD, trade deficit

Depreciating rupee has raised concerns about inflated import bill and consequent pressure on trade deficit and current account deficit (CAD), reported Financial Express. The external borrowing of firms will also become less attractive, with rates going up and the rupee falling. Crisil expects CAD to more than double to three per cent of GDP in 2022-23, while ICRA has estimated CAD for the current fiscal to expand to an all-time high of USD 120 billion or 3.5 per cent of GDP. Stating that slowing global growth is likely to have a more pronounced negative impact on exports in the months to come, Nomura has estimated current account deficit at 3.8 per cent of GDP in 2022-23. According to India Ratings, weakness in global demand originating from weak economic conditions will widen current account deficit to 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2022-23. Economists further stated that a demand slowdown in top markets such as the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) will weigh more on the order flow in goods than in services. Also, a fall in rupee will help suppliers of services more than those of goods as most services segments barely rely on imported inputs.

References
1. https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/weak-rupee-to-spur-services-exports-more-than-goods/2689333/
CMIE STATISTICS
Unemployment Rate (30-DAY MVG. AVG.)
Per cent
8.3 +0.7
Consumer Sentiments Index
Base September-December 2015
81.9 -0.2
Consumer Expectations Index
Base September-December 2015
81.6 0.0
Current Economic Conditions Index
Base September-December 2015
82.3 -0.6
Quarterly CapEx Aggregates
(Rs.trillion) Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22
New projects 4.04 8.60 4.88 3.53
Completed projects 2.86 1.32 1.18 1.33
Stalled projects 0.08 0.43 0.53 0.06
Revived projects 1.98 0.33 0.29 0.09
Implementation stalled projects 0.66 0.09 0.29 0.26
Updated on: 08 Dec 2022 8:28PM
Quarterly Financials of Listed Companies
(% change) Dec 21 Mar 22 Jun 22 Sep 22
All listed Companies
 Income 23.4 20.8 40.1 25.1
 Expenses 21.3 19.8 41.4 27.1
 Net profit 35.4 31.3 21.1 -3.0
 PAT margin (%) 9.0 8.8 7.2 7.7
 Count of Cos. 4,756 4,671 4,683 4,494
Non-financial Companies
 Income 29.3 24.8 50.1 27.8
 Expenses 28.8 25.7 52.9 31.5
 Net profit 19.2 9.8 8.3 -22.6
 PAT margin (%) 7.5 7.6 5.7 5.5
 Net fixed assets 2.0 3.9
 Current assets 15.0 19.3
 Current liabilities 11.7 10.8
 Borrowings 3.6 11.8
 Reserves & surplus 11.3 7.6
 Count of Cos. 3,439 3,387 3,414 3,330
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 08 Dec 2022 8:28PM
Annual Financials of All Companies
(% change) FY20 FY21 FY22
All Companies
 Income 0.6 -0.9 25.8
 Expenses 0.4 -3.2 24.7
 Net profit -3.8 75.0 61.6
 PAT margin (%) 2.0 4.3 7.9
 Assets 9.0 9.9 9.9
 Net worth 4.7 12.0 14.2
 RONW (%) 3.4 6.8 11.8
 Count of Cos. 33,421 32,202 9,171
Non-financial Companies
 Income -1.1 -1.9 31.7
 Expenses -0.9 -3.9 31.5
 Net profit -20.4 62.2 60.2
 PAT margin (%) 2.2 3.9 6.9
 Net fixed assets 11.3 2.2 2.3
 Net worth 2.1 10.5 14.8
 RONW (%) 4.6 7.5 13.3
 Debt / Equity (times) 1.2 1.0 0.7
 Interest cover (times) 1.9 2.4 4.3
 Net working capital cycle (days) 82 88 55
 Count of Cos. 26,380 25,257 6,870
Numbers are net of P&E
Updated on: 05 Dec 2022 10:11AM